5th June 2020 The Hindu Analysis

A chill in U.S. and China relation 

A binary choice between the U.S. and

China is likely to test India’s capacity to maintain strategic and decisional autonomy

A slew of recent announcements on China by U.S. President Donald Trump is a clear indication that the competition between the U.S. and China is likely to sharpen in the post-COVID world. On May 29, the Trump administration said it would revoke Hong Kong’s special trade status under U.S. law. The administration also passed an order limiting the entry of certain Chinese graduate students and researchers who may have ties to the People’s Liberation Army. The U.S. President has also ordered financial regulators to closely examine Chinese firms listed in U.S. stock markets, and warned those that do not comply with U.S. laws could be delisted.

Complicit in China’s rise

Americans have had a strange fascination for China ever since the early 1900s when Protestant missionaries decided that it was God’s work to bring salvation to the Chinese. Books like The Good Earth by Pearl S. Buck and Red Star Over China by Edgar Snow in the 1930s romanticised the country. Even after the Chinese communists seized power, the Americans hoped to cohabit with Mao Zedong in a world under U.S. hegemony. The Chinese allowed them to believe this and extracted their price. U.S. President Richard Nixon gave China the international acceptability it craved in return for being admitted to Mao’s presence in 1972; President Jimmy Carter terminated diplomatic relations with Taiwan in order to normalise relations with China in 1978; President George H.W. Bush washed away the sins of Tiananmen in 1989 for ephemeral geopolitical gain; and Bill Clinton, who as a presidential candidate had criticised Bush for indulging the Chinese, proceeded as President to usher the country into the World Trade Organization at the expense of American business. All American administrations since the 1960s have been complicit in China’s rise in the unrealised hope that it will become a ‘responsible stakeholder’ under Pax Americana.

Confronting China

The rising tensions between the two super powers have prompted many experts to warn of a new Cold War. “A rising chorus of American voices now argues that confronting China should become the organizing principle of U.S. foreign policy, akin to the Cold War against the Soviet Union,” Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in The Wall Street Journal on May 7, adding that it would be a strategic error. Hawks in the Trump administration openly push for a more aggressive approach towards Beijing.

Ties between the two countries had started deteriorating well before the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2017, the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy called China as “a revisionist power” seeking “to erode American security and prosperity” and “shape a world antithetical to U.S. values and interests”. In September 2019, while responding to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Ford’s comment that the American government was formulating a strategy to address potential "security challenges" by China, the Foreign Ministry in Beijing said. “We urge relevant officials in the United States to abandon the Cold-War mentality and zero-sum game mindset...”

Also read: ‘Once Upon a Virus’: China mocks U.S. coronavirus response in Lego-like animation

The ‘Novikov telegram’

COVID-19 appears to have aggravated the crisis, pushing both countries, already reeling under trade, technology and maritime disputes, to take a more hostile position towards each other. “Record high temperatures have been recorded in Sino-U.S. relations in recent years and the pandemic is no exception to this. Competition rules the relationship, and flexibility and mature handling are in short supply on both sides. Uncertainty prevails, whether it on the question of resolving trade problems, or on the maritime front in the East and South China Seas, on technology, or on mutual mud-slinging on COVID-19-related issues,” Nirupama Menon Rao, who served as India's Foreign Secretary from 2009 to 2011, told The Hindu.

In early April, China’s Ministry of State Security sent an internal report to the country’s top leaders, stating that hostility in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak could tip relations with the U.S. into confrontation, according to a Reuters report. One of the officials the report has quoted said some in the Chinese intelligence community see the report as China’s version of the ‘Novikov Telegram’, referring to a report Nikolai Novikov, the Soviet Ambassador in Washington, sent to Moscow in September 1946, laying out his analysis of the U.S. conduct.

Also read: Trump faults China for coronavirus' spread, says U.S. investigating

In his report, sent to Stalin and Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov, Novikov said the U.S. determined on world domination and suggested the Soviet Union create a buffer in Eastern Europe. Novikov’s telegram was a response to the “Long Telegram”, the 8,000-word report sent by George Kennan, an official at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, to Washington, in which he said the Soviet Union was heavily armed and determined to spread communism, and a peaceful coexistence was impossible. Historians often trace the origins of the Cold War to these telegrams.

Nationalist overdrive

So where is the current crisis in relations between the U.S. and China headed? Ms. Rao, who also served as India’s Ambassador in both Washington and Beijing, said tensions will not go away. “This situation is unlikely to ease until the U.S. Presidential election. Post-election, temperatures could decrease, but a deep-rooted antipathy towards China has gripped the popular and political imagination in the U.S. Therefore, tensions will not go away. In China, the leadership and public opinion are both on a nationalist overdrive and the Trump administration is seen as the prime antagonist. The prognosis is not encouraging,” she said.

Does it mean both countries are already in a Cold War? “There are similarities between the current crisis and the Cold War. The political elites of both China and the U.S., like the Soviet Union and the U.S. back then, see each other as their main rivals. We can also see this antagonism moving from the political elite to the popular perception — the targeting of ethnic Chinese professionals and others in the U.S. and of American individuals or entities in China is a case in point,” said Jabin T. Jacob, Associate Professor at Shiv Nadar University and an Adjunct Research Fellow at the National Maritime Foundation in Delhi.

Ideological conflict

“But there are key differences as well. We don’t see the kind of proxy conflicts between the U.S. and China which we did during the Cold War. The world is also not bipolar any more. There are third parties such as the EU, Russia, India and Japan. These parties increasingly have a choice whether or not to align with either power as they see fit and on a case by case basis. This leads to a very different kind of international order than during the Cold War,” Mr. Jacob told The Hindu.

But Mr. Jacob warned that ties between the U.S. and China could take a worse turn if Mr. Trump is re-elected this November. “The Cold War was out and out ideological between the communist and capitalist blocs. For China, a country ruled by a communist party where the primary goal of all state apparatus is preserving the regime in power, it’s always been ideological. The U.S. has started realising this angle about China now. The Republican party has ideological worldviews, too. If Trump gets re-elected, the ideological underpinnings of the U.S.-China rivalry could get further solidified.”

Swiss chees and defence reforms 

The holes in the three cheese slices comprising the defence set-up must align for a nation to be prepared militarily

The Swiss cheese model is associated with accident investigation in an organisation or a system. A system consists of multiple domains or layers, each having some shortcomings. These layers are visualised in the model as slices of Swiss cheese, with the holes in them being the imperfections. Normally, weaknesses get nullified, other than when, at some point, the holes in every slice align to let a hazard pass through and cause an accident.

• Revision state is a term of power transistion theory with the wider field of international relation.
• it describe states whose objective is to change or put an end to the current system.
• The swiss chees model is associated with accident investigation in an organisation or a system.
• a system consists of multiple domain or layers each having some shortscomming. this layers are visualised in the model as slices of Swiss cheese, with the holes in them being the imperfection 
• normally, weakness get nullified, other then when the holes in every slices align to let a hazards pass through an accident.
• in the India defence setup, the three slices are ,one the policymaker apparatus comprising the Department of Military affairs (DMA) and Ministry of Defence (MoD).
• two, the Defence research and development (R&D) established and domestics manufacturing industry;
• and three,the three services
• the advent of smart mentions, computer processing networking capabilities and the skyrocketing cost of equipment brought in the concept of parallel warfare 
• Synergised application of tools of national powre became an imperative.
• the settings up of the DMA and the creation of the post of Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) to achieve synergy are the most fundamental chnges
• Security environment demand the capability accretion of three services proceed unhinfered.
• Indigenous R&D and a manufacturinf supply chains that ensure quality war fighting equipment, at the right time and in required quantities, is still some years away. 

When applied to a nation’s defence preparedness, the Swiss cheese model, in its simplest form, works the reverse way. The slices represent the major constituents in a nation’s war-making potential, while the holes are pathways through which the domains interact. At the macro level, there are only three slices with holes in each. These must align to ensure that a nation’s defence posture is in tune with its political objectives; any mismatch may turn out to be detrimental to the nation’s aatma samman (self-respect) when the balloon goes up. In these days of the Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, a clinical analysis is necessary to obviate any missteps that may prove costly a few years or decades down the line.

• In the Indian defence set-up, the three slices are: one, the policymaking apparatus comprising the Department of Military Affairs (DMA) and Ministry of Defence (MoD); two, the defence research and development (R&D) establishment and domestic manufacturing industry; and three, the three services. When the MoD alone existed, a certain relationship between the three layers saw India prosecute four major wars since independence. The holes in the three slices were aligned to different degrees and hence the results were varied in each conflict; that the system required an overhaul would be an understatement

Elephant in India dies after possibly eating fruit stuffed with explosives

A post-mortem of a pregnant wild elephant in Kerala, India, that died on May 27, suggests the mother-to-be's death may have resulted from an explosion in her mouth after she ate a fruit stuffed with firecrackers, according to news reports.

"(The explosion) fractured the bones and caused a lot of damage to the mouth. The animal could not eat and became weak. And then died," said Ashique Ali, a local forest officer, CNN reported. 

Locals sometimes ward off, and kill, wild boars with firecracker-stuffed pineapples and other sweet fruits, according to CNN. To date, one person, only identified as Wilson, has been arrested for his alleged role in the killing, state forest minister K Raju said today (June 5), The Indian Express reported.

Forest officers initially found the injured 15-year-old elephant on May 23, but they were unable to immobilize her so that she could be treated, Ali said, according to CNN. Two days later, she was seen standing in a river. "In order to give treatment, it has to be immobilized but we could not use a tranquilizer while it is in the water because then the animal can drown," Ali said, according to CNN.

The officers tried using two captive elephants to help guide the injured animal from the stream, to no avail. "For almost 48 hours, the elephant stood in that spot, before succumbing to the deep internal injuries on the evening of May 27," the Express reported.

Individuals from the state's forest department are looking for clues in the area, such as more explosive-laced snares, to find out who was involved in the elephant's death, the Express reported.

Central Government has taken a very serious note of the killing of an elephant in Mallapuram, #Kerala. We will not leave any stone unturned to investigate properly and nab the culprit(s). This is not an Indian culture to feed fire crackers and kill," India's environment minister Prakash Javadekar wrote on Twitter.

India is home to more than half of the world's wild Asian elephants (Elephas maximus), with 27,312 individuals living in the country, according to the conservation group Elephant Family. The greatest threat to these elephants has been human activity that is destroying their natural habitat, particularly the natural corridors connecting these areas, Elephant Family said.

• scores of elephnt are killed every year in India as their paths cross those of humans 
• rising conflicts between the human and animals are only destined to grow as commercial pressure eat already deminished habitat.
• The perpetrators may be prosecuted for the elephant that cen do little to mitiagte the larger issue of lost ranges blocked corridors for the wandering giants.
• India has thousand of elephant - just under 30,000 according to available counts -but no strong science-imbued policy that encourages soft landscapes and migrating passages that will reduce conglicts
• shrinking ranges and feeding ground for elephant cause  serious worry because the animals look for soft landscapes adjoining forest such as coffe, tea and cardamom estates, and in the absence of these wander into foodrich farms falling in their movement pathways.
• Madhav Gadgil Committee Report calling for the entire western Ghat to be classified as ecologically sensitive an dspared of destructive development.
• 

Access to the right equipment

India’s security managers have to factor in the increasingly belligerent posture of the country’s two adversaries. Terrorist activities have not reduced in Jammu and Kashmir, ongoing incidents along the northern border with China do not foretell a peaceful future, and the China-Pakistan nexus can only be expected to get stronger and portentous. Such a security environment demands that capability accretion of the three services proceed unhindered. To elaborate, the Indian Air Force at a minimum requires 300 fighters to bolster its squadron strength; the Army needs guns of all types; and the Navy wants ships, helicopters, etc. The requirements are worth billions of dollars but with COVID-19-induced cuts in defence spending, and their diversion to the social sector, getting all of them is a joint mirage. Enter the well-meaning government diktat for buying indigenous only, but for that, in-house R&D and manufacturing entities have to play ball. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited can, at best, produce just eight Tejas fighters per year presently; the Army has had to import rifles due to the failure of the Defence Research and Development Organisation to produce them; and the Navy has earnest hopes that the hull designs that its internal R&D makes get the vital innards for going to war. So, the Swiss cheese slice representing indigenous R&D and a manufacturing supply chain that ensures quality war-fighting equipment, at the right time and in required quantities, is still some years away. Wars cannot be fought and won on well-meaning policy intentions and nationalist rhetoric; wars are won when war fighters have access to the right equipment to prosecute them.

Creating theatre commands

The forthcoming reform of creating theatre commands is the most talked about result of jointness expected from the Swiss cheese slice in which lie the DMA and a restructured MoD. Doing so would be a shake-up of huge proportions as it strikes at the very foundation of the war-fighting structure of the services. The three-year deadline spoken about by the CDS must take into account the not-so-comfortable state of assets of each service which would need to be carved up for each theatre. The Chinese announced their ‘theaterisation’ concept in 2015; it is still work in progress. The U.S. had a bruising debate for decades before the Goldwater-Nichols Act came into force in 1986. Turf wars are not a patent of any one nation. New relationships take time to smooth out, and in the arena of defence policymaking, which is where the DMA and MoD lie, the element of time has a value of its own: any ramming through, just to meet a publicly declared timeline, could result in creating a not-so-optimal war-fighting organisation to our detriment.

So, the three services that constitute the third Swiss cheese slice have to contend with the other two slices being in a state of flux for some time to come. It’s a no-brainer that this disruption requires level-headed non-parochial handling. The political, civil and military leadership must have their feet firmly on ground to ensure that the holes in their Swiss cheese continue to stay aligned; impractical timelines and pressures of public pronouncements must not be the drivers in such a fundamental overhaul of our defence apparatus. To paraphrase Deng Xiaoping, shun publicity and build capability first.

Embarrassing alternative protein 

They are vastly better for planetary health

On World Environment Day (June 5), the usual routine is to call for the protection of ‘Nature’ — but nature isn’t defenceless. The emerging concept of planetary health characterises impacts of human-caused disruptions of Earth’s ecological systems. COVID-19 is showing us that our lives and livelihoods are intricately intertwined with these systems — and when we inflict tremendous harms on the planet, the consequences can be catastrophic.

We don’t think of the pandemic as an ecological disaster, but COVID-19 didn’t happen in a vacuum. It is a direct consequence of anthropogenic impacts on the planet. In these anthropogenic impacts, pandemics and climate change find common causes. Nowhere is this link clearer than in the food system, and particularly in our reliance on animals for protein.

Hazards of factory farming

Large-scale, industrial animal agriculture for meat, eggs, and dairy — also called factory farming — creates and exacerbates planetary health risks at every scale. Scientists at the United Nations’ Food and Agricultural Organization estimate that it is “one of the top two or three most significant contributors to the most serious environmental problems.” Our need for animal protein uses vast tracts of land and quantities of water to raise those animals, to graze them, and to grow crops to feed them. It contributes more to climate change than emissions from the entire transportation sector. Wild and farmed seafood production also causes significant environmental degradation, species loss, and habitat destruction. Of course, as the names suggest, animals are also the sources of viral outbreaks of swine flu and avian flu. With regular outbreaks of these zoonotic diseases, COVID-19 is unlikely to be the last planetary health crisis caused by the close contact between humans, animals and microbes.

Expert voices ranging from the Food and Land Use Coalition, to the World Health Organization, to the EAT-Lancet Commission have all identified that diversifying protein sources away from animals is a hugely neglected intervention for human and planetary health. But with rising demand for meat, eggs, and dairy, a chorus of ‘chickpeas over chicken’ may not be enough. All over the world, companies in the exciting ‘alternative protein’ sector are making upgraded versions of meat, eggs, and dairy from plant or crop ingredients, or directly from animal cells. These foods satisfy consumers and producers without taking away their choice, because they taste the same, are used in exactly the same way, but are vastly better for planetary health. Countries like Singapore and Canada are already making alternative protein a central piece of their food security story, with an emphasis on research, entrepreneurship, and self-sufficiency.

Factory farming in India is still a small industry compared to the U.S., Brazil, or China, though it is increasingly being seen as an employment and income generator in a country with water scarcity and diminishing land holdings. We think that’s a mistake — it is imposing a 20th century industrial model. Instead, we need to build upon our strengths in agriculture and in manufacturing to create a new food system that works for farmers and is robust to systemic shocks. COVID-19 has underscored that we can scarcely afford the consequences of an inefficient protein supply. Why not completely rethink our way of producing food, and create a 21st century economy delivering plentiful, safe, and nutritious protein?

What is industrial Agricuture ?

• Industrial agriculture is currently the dominated food production system in the United States.
• Its charecterised by large scale monoculture heavy use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides and meat production in CAFOs (Confined animals feeding operation)
• The emerging concept of panetry health charecterised impacts of human caused disruption of Earths ecology systems
• COVID-19 is showing us that our lives and livelihoods intricately interwined with these system and which inflicts tremendeous harm on the planet, the consequence be catastrophic.
• It is a direct consequence of anthropogenic impact on planet, pendemic and climate changes find common causes.
• Scientist at United Nationd Food and Agricultural Organisation estimate that it is one of the top two two or three most significant contributors to the most serious environmental problems.
• Largescale, industrial animals agriculture for meat,eggs and dairy also called factory farming creates and exacerbates planetry health risks at every scales.
• Our need for animal protein uses vast tract of land and quantities of water to raise those animals, to graze them and to to grow crops to feed them
• It contribute more to climate change then emission from the entire transportation sector.
• wild and farm seafood production also causes sigificant environmental degradation species loss and habitat destruction 
• of caurse as the names suggest, animals are also the sources of viral outbreak of swine flu and avain flu.
• with regular outbreak of these zoonotic diseases.
• countries like Singapore and Canada are already making alternative protein a central piece of their food security story with an emphasis on research entrepreneurship and self sufficiency.
• Factory farming in India is still a small industry compared to the U.S.,Brazil or China, through it is incresingly being seen as an employment and income generaator in a country with water scarcity and dimiishing lands holdings.
• we need to build our strength in agriculture and in manufacturing to create  new food system thet work for farmers and is robust to  systemic shocks.
• Set a side the liabilities of industrial animals agriculture create a smarter alternative protein industry supplying us an the rest of the world.

Vande Bharat Mission set to break evacuation record

• The Vande Bharat Mission was started by the Indian Government on May 7 to bring stranded Indians home amid the COVID-19 pendemic from foreign land on a payment basis.
• it is also permitted foreign nationals and valid visa hold book seat on these outbound flights.

India Australia meet strengthened ties

Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his first-ever virtual summit with his Australian counterpart Scott Morrison (on the screen), in New Delhi on June 4, 2020. Photo: PIB/PTI | Photo Credit:

Modi, Morrison conclude nine pacts including a Mutual Logistics Support Agreement

India and Australia raised their relationship to a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” after a ‘virtual’ summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who concluded nine agreements including a Mutual Logistics Support Agreement (MLSA) and issued a joint declaration on a “Shared Vision for Maritime Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.”

Also read: Coronavirus | India, Australia vow to jointly fight COVID-19;

The two countries also agreed to increase the frequency of meetings between the two Prime Ministers, and took the “2+2” format of bilateral meetings to the level of Foreign and Defence Ministers, who will meet to “discuss strategic issues” at least every two years. The two leaders, who are expected to meet in person at the extended G-7 summit to be held in the United States later this year, spoke for more than an hour over a video link, a first for a bilateral summit for India.

Both India and Australia share a vision of a free, open, inclusive and rules-based Indo-Pacific region to support the freedom of navigation, over-flight and peaceful and cooperative use of the seas by adherence of all nations to international law including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and peaceful resolution of disputes rather than through unilateral or coercive actions,” said the statement issued in New Delhi and Canberra.

‘No talks on China’

The summit came amidst tensions between India and China over the standoff at the Line of Actual Control, and Australia-China tensions over trade issues and differences over handling of the coronavirus pandemic. However, Ministry of External Affairs officials said there had been “no discussion” on China, and the two leaders had not discussed including Australia for “Malabar” or quadrilateral maritime exercises that would include India, Australia, U.S. and Japan, something that China has opposed in the past.

Also read: Won’t interfere in border issue, says Australian envoy

“Both sides agreed to continue to deepen and broaden defence cooperation by enhancing the scope and complexity of their military exercises and engagement activities to develop new ways to address shared security challenges,” the joint statement added, referring to the MLSA which will allow both militaries the reciprocal use of bases, humanitarian and disaster relief cooperation, port exercises, and passage exercises. Other agreements announced included a framework arrangement on cyber technology, an MoU on mining and processing critical and strategic minerals including Australian rare earth metals used for electronics, governance, vocational training and water management.

Collaborative approach

In his opening remarks, Mr. Modi said the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) took on new meaning at the time of the global pandemic. “The world needs a coordinated and collaborative approach to come out of the economic and social side effects of this pandemic. Our government has decided to view this crisis as an opportunity,” he told Mr. Morrison.

India has signed CSPs with the United Kingdom, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the United Arab Emirates thus far, while Australia has CSPs with China, Indonesia and Singapore.

Mr. Morrison said the CSP would raise the level of “trust” required to improve the “trade and investment flows” between India and Australia which at present “were are not where [the two leaders] would both like them to be, but they are growing and they can grow a lot faster.” With India opting out of the 16-nation ASEAN-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement that Australia is a part of, the two sides also decided to “recommence” suspended talks over the India-Australia Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA), suspended since 2015 after nine inconclusive rounds of negotiations, said Secretary, MEA, Vijay Thakur Singh.

Also read: India open to including Australia in Malabar naval exercise

________________________________________

‘Missed Modi hug’

In a lighter moment, Mr. Morrison, who had to cancel his planned visit to Delhi in January due to the Australian bush fires, and in May due to the coronavirus pandemic, said he missed the “famous Modi hug” during the virtual summit. Over the weekend the two leaders had exchanged tweets over Mr. Morrison’s prowess at making ‘samosas’, and the Australian Prime Minister promised to make “khichdi” next, as Mr. Modi had told him it was his favourite dish.