3rd June 2020 The Hindu Analysis

Nisarg barrels towards Mumbai 

With the India Meteorological Department declaring a red alert in Mumbai for the first cyclone that has formed near the city on the Arabian Sea in a long time, Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, in a televised address, advised people to remain indoors. All activity that was set to resume from Wednesday in the State would remain suspended for two more days, he said.

Maximum City on red

alert as cyclone set to

make landfall near

Alibaug

Maharashtra and Gujarat on Tuesday geared up for Cyclone Nisarga, which is expected to make landfall on Wednesday evening near Alibaug, south of Mumbai.

The Chief Minister, who spoke with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and held a video-conference with Home Minister Amit Shah, said besides the State administration, the National Disaster Response Force, Army, Navy and Air Force were on standby. Along with IMD’s red alert, a storm surge warning for Mumbai was also issued. “Storm surge of 1-2 metres above astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low-lying areas of Mumbai during the time of landfall,” the warning read.

Cyclone Nisarga : A

Patients shifted as precaution

The Brihanamumbai Muni. cipal Corporation (BMC) and Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) on Tuesday shifted nearly 250 COVID-19 patients from the temporary facility at Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC) ground to the COVID centre at the NSCI Centre, a permanent structure in Worli as a precautionary measure ahead of the landfall of severe cyclone Nisarga on Wednesday.

What does that mean?

The strength of cyclone are measured by wind speed that generate

As its strongest missed would be associated with wind speed wind speed in the range 95-105 km/hour

Amphan, on the outer hand was classified ads super cyclone category 5 through it had weakened through category  at which time were the wind were in excess is of 180 kph.

Scripting a new narrative of COVID-19

 control

Social vaccines keep citizen update with authentic information and convince then that their behaviour makes a change to the nations health and economy

For this to happen the government must do it utmost to suppress social toxin and convince people about a genuine concern for health and welfare .

Social mobilisation our mainstay against our community transmission of HIV from 1986 ensure clear guidelines for medical professional about preventing hospital related transmission. 

Educational effort to integral to social vaccines galvanised society to resist HIV transmission like immunity resisting progression of infection within the body. 

Social vaccines would be promoted as a mean to encourage a popular mobilisation and advocacy to change the social and economic structural condition that render people and communities vulnerable to diseases. 

A social vaccines is metaphor for series of social and  behavior measures that government can use to raise a public concicuiness about unhealthy situation through immobilisation.

Social mobilisation can empower population to resist unhealthy practice increase resilience and foster advocacy for change. 

Multilatarism in New Cold War 

• The new Cold War defined by technology and trade not territory, nonalignment is an uncertain option advantage chair of the Executive board of the World Health Assembly (it is a discussion making body on World Health Organization) India can set the global response in term of multilatarism, not just a medical issue.
• In September the United Nations General Assembly will discuss the theme, "The Future we want" In 2021 the India joins the UN Security Council (Non permanent seat and chairs the BRICS summit and in 2022, host the G20, a rate alignment of stars for agendasettin.
• All online summit of Non Aligned Movement in May Prime Minister Modi called the new principal for the international system. 
• His new globalization model based on humanity fairness and equality has wide support in more equal world. 
• For the first time since 1950, everyone is experiencing the same virus threat.
• We should use this opportunity to recover our global through leadership think Nalanda, astronomical computation ,the zero Ayurveda Bhuddhism yoga and ahimsa as well as clothing world for mallinnie.
• The clash between China and U.S . at just concluded World Health Assembly in May mark the end of the multilatarism of the past 70 years.
• The Agenda setting role of G7 over UN Institution and global rule has also been effectively challenged WHO ignoring the reform diktat of the U.S leading to its withdraw and characterisation of the G7 as " outdated. 
• The U. S. has also implicitly the rejected the G20and UN Security Council expand G7 "to discuss the future of China". 
• The U.S faces and uphill task in seeking to lead a new multidimensional institution as China's reemergence is based on technology innovation trade balancing U. S military Superiority at a time of declining global free-market libralarism, central to western civilization. 
• With a western experiencing a shock comparable to the one experienced by Asia 200year ago, the superiority of western civilization is also under question
• The novel corona virus pandemic has excelreted the shift of global wealth to Asia suggesting an exclusive global order based on principle drawn from Ancient Asian civilization. 
• Colonised Asia play no role in shaping the Industrial revolution ,the Digital revolution will be shaped by different values.
• It is really this clash that multilatarism that has to resolve. 
• The global vacuum,shift in relative powerand it's own potential, provide India the capacity to articulate the beginning multilatarism is a NAM plus that resonate with large part of the world and brings both BRICS and the G7into the tent. 
• First,the Asian century should be defined in term of peacefull coexistence freezing postcolonial sovereignity.
• Non interference in the internal affairs of the other is key lessons from the decline of the U.S. and the raise of China 
• National security now realise on technologycal superiority in artificial intelligence (AI) cyber and space and not expensive capital equipment as India's military has acknowledge Instead of massive arm import we should use the savings to enhance endegeneous capacity andould the global digital economy between state centric (China) firm-centric (the U.S.)and public centric (India's) system. 
• Second,  a global community at comparable level of well being requires new principal for trade, for example rejecting a 25 year old trade rule create a individual property monopolies 
• Global public goods should include public health crop reachers, renewable energies and batteries even AI as its value come from shared data 
• Third, The Ancient civilizational values provide the conceptual underpinning restructuring both the economic order and the societal behaviour for equitable sustainable development. 

Monsoon bounty 

• While IMD is primarily, scientific organisation it faces competition from domestic and international companies in providing weatherland services.
• In crop insistence power distribution and short range forecast the IMD no longer has the monopoly on providing weather information. 
• The later has the consequences for the IMD others major role to give it's outlook on  how the monsoon might plan out over India and how much rain is likely in July and August the month for the summer crop. 
• This year save for India's northeast the crop parts and southern peninsula. 
• Through reassuring , it worth it remembering that just last year IMD failed to communicate that 2019 would turn into out to be the wettest in two decades. 
• The complexity of climate change is now such that excess rain in a year seem to have long ranging impact with report of second consecutive year of locust plague in India on horizon which can affect the khariff crop. 
• It is therefore the time that along with improve science and forecasting the IMD works on disseminating the more precise localised weather forecast.   
• While the public interface and technology adsorption is improving particularly in cyclone forecast the organisation has long way to go in communicating this improvement to a wider population 

A challenge of Law enforcement post COVID-19 

• How will COVID-19Aaffect the future law enforcement and the how will the patter of crime be managed especially given that the  virus stay for long time? 
• How did the police managed to garner all  the resourcesan manpower material- to enforce the lock down in all state? 
• What help the police was public cooperation without which there would have been chaos 
• In this experience lies a lesson, a building blocks for future police public relation 
• They also successfully used social media to diseminate all relevant information to a majority of a population both in urban and rural areas.
• However this period saw a worrying surge in domestic violence cases? 
• Data shows that domestic violence increase when there is a greater  unemployment. The fear and insecurity of these men cause ten's at home and unfortunately women become the victim of these tension.
• The second reason is the non availability of liquor during the lockdown period which cause frustration among those member are habituated to drinking daily. 
• The pendemic is both to treat to and an opportunity for organised crime especially illicit drugs trade. Travel restriction across border especially in Africa have made internal trade drug extremely difficult. 
• Gangs have therefore been at work to innovate and adapt to changing nature of illicit market 
• The global initiative believe that organised hands will infiltrate the service and make profit through the sell of prescription drugs are not other wise easily available to the public.
• Another new trend is the rise in cyber crime new portals have been launched to get people to donate money for the cause of combating COVID-19
• A major challenge for public officials is keeping prison free of the virus. 
• Many prison have taken step to insulate prisoners who reported positive for the virus from the rest of inmates.

A reformatory and fiscal package 

• With this package the government trying to balanced the stimulus demand from different sectors and also trying to contain the burden on the exchequer.
• The intent imphatic provideo imidiate support for the most distressed section like small,  micro small and medium enterprises migrants workers, on the one hand while using the crisis to long term reforms on the outer. 
• This includes freeing up the agricultural supply chain reducing the hegemony of agricultural produce market commmitee by encouraging direct online transaction between farmers and buyers and opening up sectors like coal to provide sectors 
• Prime Minister mentioned infrastructure on as one of the five pillars to to take nation out of the current crisis  
• While government will be more focused on this year dealing with pandemic and mitigation it's impact on society. It is only a question of when spending  on infrastructure will pick up. 
• The injection of Rs. 90,000 crore liquidity of DISCOMs  reforms in artificial policy privatization and distribution in Union territories. 
• Policy measure announce for defence sector which are meant to push indigenous produced and participation of private sector in India's space programme have been encouraging so for. 
• Most significantly this crises has brought to surface the need for investment in healthcare infrastructure 
• India currently spend around 12% of GDP on health which is lower then even peer countries like Brazil.

Sneezing the moment at the WHO 

• On may 22,2020 ,Harsh Varsha Minister of Health and Family Welfare was elected the chair of the world health Organization's WHO executive board 
• The 34 member body is tasked with implementing the discussion of the recently concluded World Hhealth Assembly 
• The elevation offords India an important platform to steer the global public health response to COVID-19.
• Five elements should inform it's policy approach, first india must insists that epidemic prevention and control remain the international community foremost priority. 
• As the virus chain of transmission is broken, the focus should shift to identifying the animal to human transmission origin of SARSCoV2
• India should learn on the WHO Secretriats to fasttrack the "imperia, independent and   and comprehensive review of the WHO's and China's early response to the outbreak 
• Third. India must promote the establishment of an appropriate multilateral governence mechanism for ensuring equitable excess to COVID-19 the reputics and vaccines for all countries 
• Forth India must stay aloof from the west compaing to reseat Taiwan as an observer at WHA. 
• Finally, India must lead the call for permanent global ban on the consumption and trade of wild animal with limited exception bulletin for scientific research, species protection and traditional Livengood interests.